FEC Smurfing Analysis Report

LLM-Enhanced Detection of Suspicious Political Donations

Analysis Period: 2023-2024 FEC Individual Contributions | Generated: January 8, 2026

What is Political Donation Smurfing?

"Smurfing" refers to the practice of structuring political donations to obscure their true source or circumvent contribution limits. This analysis identified donors exhibiting patterns consistent with automated or coordinated donation structuring.

Extreme Volume

Individual donors making thousands of donations per year. A human manually donating would struggle to exceed a few hundred donations annually. Donors making 10,000+ donations are almost certainly using automation.

Round Number Clustering

Normal donors give varied amounts ($17, $43, $112). Suspicious donors show 70-98% round numbers ($5, $10, $25, $50, $100) - a signature of automated systems using preset amounts.

Burst Patterns

50+ donations in a single day from one person is physically implausible. Some flagged donors made 200-900 donations in one day, indicating automated scripts.

"NOT EMPLOYED" Concentration

88% of extreme donors claim "NOT EMPLOYED" or "RETIRED". This occupation allows donors to avoid employer verification while still appearing in FEC records.

Synthetic Identities

Some profiles show abrupt starts/stops suggesting fabricated identities. Activity begins suddenly, runs at inhuman rates, then stops - consistent with detection and shutdown of fraudulent accounts.

Executive Summary

ANALYSIS_SUMMARY
├─ donors_analyzed 2,925
├─ high_suspicion 2,547 (87%)
├─ total_donations 5,529,560
└─ total_amount $107,684,777
Key Finding

2,547 individual donors made a combined 5.5 million donations totaling $107.7 million with patterns consistent with automated donation structuring.

Party Breakdown

Democratic Committees

$39,271,596

From 1,581 suspicious donors

Republican Committees

$23,052,559

From 1,176 suspicious donors

Top Recipients

ActBlue
$21.8M
WinRed
$8.1M
Trump National JFC
$4.5M
NRSC
$3.2M
Trump Save America
$2.7M
Fight For The People
$1.7M
DSCC
$1.7M
Progressive Turnout
$1.5M

Top 25 Most Suspicious Donors

These donors exhibited the most extreme patterns. Note the impossibly high donation counts and round number percentages.

Name Location Occupation Donations Amount % Round Per Day
MAKOWSKI, BRUCECLAWSON, MIRETIRED31,403$115,88894.4%43.0
JAHNS, RICHARDEULESS, TXRETIRED18,729$573,25762.6%34.3
HRUZA, VIRGINIAPRESCOTT, AZRETIRED18,204$232,52863.3%39.8
YANCEY, JO ANNCONROE, TXRETIRED17,362$540,01848.2%34.7
MONDER, STEVENCINCINNATI, OHNOT EMPLOYED16,735$353,98680.5%22.9
GRISWOLD, EDSONDENVER, CONOT EMPLOYED16,279$285,98777.1%27.5
IVAN, LAJOSBOUND BROOK, NJRETIRED15,126$32,95498.7%21.6
GORE, TRINADAVIE, FLRETIRED14,920$69,80689.1%20.5
DEARMAN, MELINDASAN ANTONIO, TXNOT EMPLOYED14,308$93,22485.8%19.6
PRESLEY, JUANITAMERIDIAN, IDRETIRED14,160$290,17663.7%21.7
OTTO, ROBERTGREENSBORO, NCNOT EMPLOYED13,996$278,16772.5%20.4
SKINNER, SHARONSACRAMENTO, CARETIRED12,946$159,65565.4%18.0
MENEGHELLI, CECILEFOSTER CITY, CARETIRED12,687$94,72160.2%17.4
KILPATRIC, GARYSANTA FE, NMATTORNEY12,519$90,55293.4%17.2
LEMMOND, BRENDADURHAM, NCRETIRED12,207$52,17482.7%44.6
MCLENDON, MARGARETRICHLAND, GARETIRED12,110$304,82747.8%45.2
NICHOLLS, ROSALIEAUSTIN, TXNOT EMPLOYED12,009$241,40080.7%16.5
WAYMIRE, RUTHODENVILLE, ALRETIRED11,542$74,52779.0%34.6
HILL, VERNONMOORESTOWN, NJRETIRED11,288$1M+55.3%15.7
HEATON, KEVINSAN DIEGO, CANOT EMPLOYED11,201$193,22374.6%15.4
KELSEY, TDCODY, WYRETIRED10,959$139,30267.4%15.4
ARCHER, SANDRAWOODRIDGE, ILNOT EMPLOYED10,829$85,62185.0%19.8
BOFINGER, BARBARAROCKY POINT, NYRETIRED10,572$221,85055.4%33.4
KOPPENAAL, GERALDINEMELROSE, MANOT EMPLOYED10,350$93,18572.3%14.2
BURKE, MICHAELREDONDO BEACH, CARETIRED10,122$449,95173.4%13.9

Key Patterns

88% claim "NOT EMPLOYED" or "RETIRED" 1,328 donors list "NOT EMPLOYED" ($43.2M) and 903 list "RETIRED" ($42.0M). This concentration is statistically anomalous.
Impossible donation volumes Top donor made 31,403 donations averaging 43 per day for 2 years. Manual entry of this volume is not physically possible.
Round number clustering Average 77% round numbers across suspicious donors. Normal donor patterns show ~30% round numbers.
ActBlue receives 2.7x more $21.8M from flagged donors vs WinRed's $8.1M. Both platforms warrant investigation.

Geographic Distribution

State Suspicious Donors Donations Amount Avg % Round
California461902,179$18,826,22080.2%
New York163335,639$12,601,28477.0%
Texas222527,064$11,337,99973.1%
Florida204409,125$7,091,15575.5%
Massachusetts63126,337$4,255,22276.5%
New Jersey53142,356$3,911,50481.7%
Pennsylvania78181,981$3,765,37579.1%
Ohio65149,638$2,854,28377.1%
Illinois76175,523$2,853,99776.7%
Washington88169,723$2,827,08581.2%

Potential Synthetic Identities

Flagged for Investigation

LLM analysis identified these donors as potential synthetic identities based on abrupt activity patterns suggesting automated systems that were detected and shut down.

Name Location Donations Pattern Analysis
LOONEY, GEORGE CUMMING, GA 10,020 Abrupt stop, automated pattern, common name/location combination suggests fabricated identity
CAFFREY, DOROTHY ELMHURST, IL 8,843 High volume ($40/day avg), sudden cessation after sustained activity indicates detection

Methodology

Phase 1: SQL Pattern Detection Identified 61,867 extreme donors (100+ donations) from 58M FEC records. Scored on volume, burst patterns, round numbers, frequency. Selected 2,925 with score >= 50 for LLM analysis.
Phase 2: LLM Analysis Claude 3 Haiku analyzed each donor profile for fraud indicators including automation signatures, identity anomalies, and coordination patterns. Total cost: ~$15.