FEC_SMURFING_ANALYSIS
├─ donors_analyzed 2,925
├─ high_suspicion 2,547 (87%)
├─ total_donations 5,529,560
├─ flagged_amount $107.7M
├─ avg_round_numbers 75.3%
├─ analysis_model Claude 3 Haiku
└─ source FEC Individual Contributions (58M records)
Important Disclaimer
This report presents statistical analysis of publicly available FEC data enhanced with LLM pattern detection. Unusual patterns do not prove wrongdoing. There may be legitimate explanations including recurring donations, data entry artifacts, platform technical issues, or legitimate income sources. The individuals referenced have not been charged with any crimes.
What is Political Donation Smurfing?
"Smurfing" refers to the practice of structuring donations to obscure their true source or circumvent contribution limits. In political donations, this can manifest as:
- •Extreme volume patterns - Hundreds or thousands of donations from a single person
- •Round number clustering - High percentage of $5, $10, $25, $50, $100 amounts
- •Burst activity - 50+ donations in a single day from one donor
- •Automation signatures - Patterns suggesting programmatic rather than manual donations
- •Identity concerns - Abrupt starts/stops or patterns suggesting synthetic identities
Analysis Methodology
This investigation used a two-phase approach:
Phase 1: SQL Pattern Detection
Identified 61,867 extreme donors (100+ donations) from 58M FEC records. Scored donors on volume, burst patterns, round numbers, and donation frequency. Selected 2,925 high-priority donors (score >= 50) for deep analysis.
Phase 2: LLM Analysis
Each donor profile analyzed by Claude 3 Haiku for fraud indicators. Model assigned suspicion levels (critical/high/medium/low) with reasoning. 87% of analyzed donors flagged as high suspicion.
Top 25 Most Suspicious Donors
Ranked by total donation count. Data from public FEC Individual Contributions filings.
| Donor | Location | Occupation | Donations | Amount | % Round | Per Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORD, BEVERLY | MARIETTA, GA | RETIRED | 34,484 | $377K | 74.4% | 47.2 |
| MAKOWSKI, BRUCE | CLAWSON, MI | RETIRED | 31,403 | $116K | 94.4% | 43.0 |
| URBANOWICZ, WENDY | VANCOUVER, WA | NOT EMPLOYED | 22,893 | $205K | 84.1% | 31.4 |
| KESKITALO, CANDACE | SPRING PARK, MN | NOT EMPLOYED | 22,218 | $161K | 61.1% | 31.3 |
| SCHWEITZER, MICHELLE | SEATTLE, WA | NOT EMPLOYED | 19,515 | $116K | 94.1% | 26.8 |
| FARR, GERALD | SAN MARCOS, TX | NOT EMPLOYED | 19,464 | $290K | 68.2% | 26.7 |
| JAHNS, RICHARD | EULESS, TX | RETIRED | 18,729 | $573K | 62.6% | 34.3 |
| HRUZA, VIRGINIA | PRESCOTT, AZ | RETIRED | 18,204 | $233K | 63.3% | 39.8 |
| YANCEY, JO ANN | CONROE, TX | RETIRED | 17,362 | $540K | 48.2% | 34.7 |
| MONDER, STEVEN | CINCINNATI, OH | NOT EMPLOYED | 16,735 | $354K | 80.5% | 22.9 |
| GRISWOLD, EDSON | DENVER, CO | NOT EMPLOYED | 16,279 | $286K | 77.1% | 27.4 |
| IVAN, LAJOS | BOUND BROOK, NJ | RETIRED | 15,126 | $33K | 98.7% | 21.6 |
| GORE, TRINA | DAVIE, FL | RETIRED | 14,920 | $70K | 89.1% | 20.5 |
| DEARMAN, MELINDA | SAN ANTONIO, TX | NOT EMPLOYED | 14,308 | $93K | 85.8% | 19.6 |
| PRESLEY, JUANITA | MERIDIAN, ID | RETIRED | 14,160 | $290K | 63.7% | 21.7 |
| CHASIN, MARK | WEST ORANGE, NJ | NOT EMPLOYED | 14,082 | $122K | 81.5% | 19.3 |
| OTTO, ROBERT | GREENSBORO, NC | NOT EMPLOYED | 13,996 | $278K | 72.5% | 20.4 |
| NEWMAN, HAROLD | AVENTURA, FL | NOT EMPLOYED | 13,302 | $158K | 82.5% | 19.9 |
| SKINNER, SHARON | SACRAMENTO, CA | RETIRED | 12,946 | $160K | 65.4% | 18.0 |
| MENEGHELLI, CECILE | FOSTER CITY, CA | RETIRED | 12,687 | $95K | 60.2% | 17.4 |
| KILPATRIC, GARY | SANTA FE, NM | ATTORNEY | 12,519 | $91K | 93.4% | 17.1 |
| LEMMOND, BRENDA | DURHAM, NC | RETIRED | 12,207 | $52K | 82.7% | 44.5 |
| MCLENDON, MARGARET | RICHLAND, GA | RETIRED | 12,110 | $305K | 47.8% | 45.2 |
| NICHOLLS, ROSALIE | AUSTIN, TX | NOT EMPLOYED | 12,009 | $241K | 80.7% | 16.5 |
| WOODS, BARB | LOMBARD, IL | RETIRED | 11,834 | $110K | 69.0% | 16.2 |
Committee Recipients
Top committees receiving donations from flagged donors.
| Committee | Party | Donations | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACTBLUEC00401224 | Unknown | 6,133,474 | $691.1M |
| HARRIS FOR PRESIDENTC00703975 | Democratic | 1,558,671 | $180.9M |
| HARRIS VICTORY FUNDC00744946 | Unknown | 995,110 | $166.7M |
| DSCCC00042366 | Democratic | 469,788 | $35.0M |
| DNC SERVICES CORP / DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEEC00010603 | Democratic | 230,045 | $32.1M |
| DCCCC00000935 | Democratic | 398,041 | $25.7M |
| FRIENDS OF SHERROD BROWNC00264697 | Democratic | 345,501 | $24.4M |
| MONTANANS FOR TESTERC00412304 | Democratic | 335,119 | $22.9M |
| COLIN ALLRED FOR SENATEC00839597 | Democratic | 328,895 | $20.7M |
| GALLEGO FOR ARIZONAC00558627 | Democratic | 188,673 | $13.5M |
| PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECTC00580068 | Unknown | 309,593 | $9.9M |
| SCHIFF FOR SENATEC00343871 | Democratic | 185,192 | $8.0M |
| MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIONC00341396 | Unknown | 157,505 | $6.6M |
| STOP REPUBLICANSC00633404 | Unknown | 172,569 | $4.6M |
| PROGRESSIVE TAKEOVERC00659599 | Unknown | 137,984 | $3.7M |
| MONTGOMERY CARDIOVASCULAR ASSOCIATES PC PACC00280107 | Unknown | 0 | - |
| BAE SYSTEMS INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (BAE SYSTEMS USA PAC)C00281212 | Unknown | 0 | - |
| BAYER US LLC EMPLOYEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (BAYERPAC)C00281162 | Unknown | 0 | - |
| AKERMAN LLP PACC00280008 | Unknown | 0 | - |
| NRSCC00027466 | Republican | 0 | - |
Geographic Distribution
| State | Suspicious Donors | Donations | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA | 1,393 | 1,732,983 | $99.0M |
| MA | 233 | 266,945 | $43.2M |
| NY | 506 | 652,562 | $43.0M |
| FL | 573 | 763,896 | $42.7M |
| TX | 623 | 928,993 | $36.5M |
| NV | 89 | 109,453 | $27.4M |
| IN | 105 | 136,369 | $19.4M |
| WA | 295 | 395,717 | $14.5M |
| VA | 213 | 280,876 | $11.7M |
| IL | 233 | 335,613 | $10.5M |
| NJ | 183 | 285,362 | $9.7M |
| DC | 44 | 45,649 | $9.4M |
| PA | 244 | 344,594 | $8.1M |
| AZ | 258 | 318,378 | $8.0M |
| GA | 186 | 270,588 | $7.9M |
Key Findings
- 1.87% high suspicion rate - 2,547 of 2,925 analyzed donors flagged as high suspicion by LLM analysis
- 2.Extreme donation volumes - Top donor made 31,403 donations averaging 43 per day
- 3.Round number clustering - Average 75% round number donations across flagged donors
- 4.Occupation patterns - 88% list "NOT EMPLOYED" or "RETIRED" as occupation
Data source: FEC Individual Contributions (58.2M records analyzed). LLM analysis via Claude 3 Haiku. Investigation ID: fec-smurf-2024-001. This analysis is provided for informational purposes - it is not an accusation of illegal conduct.